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The 2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 will take place on Sunday at Michigan International Speedway and with just four races until the beginning of the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs, the intensity is ratcheting up. Former NASCAR Cup Series champions Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick find themselves on the bubble without a win, as Truex would be last man into the postseason on points while Harvick would be last man out. The 2022 NASCAR at Michigan green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday on NBC (stream now on FuboTV). 

With 14 different winners already this year, another first-time winner would leave both future Hall-of-Famers out of the playoffs so they'll both be racing hard for a win. Truex is listed at 11-1 in the 2022 FireKeepers Casino odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Harvick is 17-1. Kyle Busch is the 11-2 favorite in the NASCAR at Michigan odds followed by Kyle Larson (6-1) and Chase Elliott (13-2). Before scouring the 2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Michigan predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Michigan picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions in the 2022 season. Earlier this season, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Michigan race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR at Michigan predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 17-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Michigan odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. As mentioned, Harvick would miss out on the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs if they began today and there's little chance he can overcome the 96-point gap in four races to catch Truex. That means he'll race the final month of the season knowing he needs to break his 65-race winless streak to get in.

And while that may seem like a tall order, let's not forget that Harvick is a 58-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series who won nine times alone back in 2020. He's also been dominant at Michigan throughout his career, with five wins on the two-mile, d-shaped oval. That includes four wins during a five-race span there from 2018-2020. He's also been the runner-up at Michigan International Speedway seven times during his career, so he knows how to work his way towards the front there. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 starting lineup. The 26-year-old is already a NASCAR Cup Series champion (2020) and he sits atop the 2022 NASCAR standings by 125 points with four wins on the season.

However, he's coming off a disappointing 16th-place finish where he didn't lead a lap on the Indianapolis road course and he's never won in 11 career starts at Michigan International Speedway. In fact, after three straight runner-up finishes at Michigan to start his NASCAR Cup Series career, Elliott has finished seventh or worse in each of his last eight starts there. See which other favorites to avoid here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Michigan picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Michigan odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the FireKeepers Casino 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Michigan odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR Michigan leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds, field

See full NASCAR Michigan picks, best bets, and predictions here

Kyle Busch 11-2
Kyle Larson 6-1
Chase Elliott 13-2
Denny Hamlin 7-1
Tyler Reddick 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 11-1
William Byron 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Christopher Bell 15-1
Kevin Harvick 17-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Bubba Wallace 40-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Chase Briscoe 50-1
Austin Cindric 50-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Brad Keselowski 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Austin Hill 125-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Michael McDowell 250-1
Harrison Burton 300-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1500-1
JJ Yeley 2000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1