After he won four races in 2020, Brad Keselowski ended last season with a single NASCAR Cup Series victory. Besides his ninth-place finish at Daytona to start this season, he has been off to a slow start in 2022, without another top-10 since then. Over the past few seasons, he has qualified well in NASCAR at Kansas races, but can he can capture the checkered flag on Sunday despite beginning in 30th? The 2022 NASCAR Kansas green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on FS1 (stream now on FuboTV).

Keselowski finished third in the Buschy McBusch Race 400 last year in the first event at Kansas Speedway after he qualified in the pole position. He finished 17th last October after starting third in the NASCAR Kansas starting grid. Can Sunday's 2022 AdventHealth 400 be the race he comes through, or will other favorites in the 2022 AdventHealth 400 odds on Caesars Sportsbook like Kyle Larson (9-2), Chase Elliott (7-1) or Kyle Busch (8-1) prove too much to overcome? Before scouring the 2022 AdventHealth 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Kansas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 NASCAR at Kansas picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 14-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Last week, the model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR in Kansas 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 AdventHealth 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 AdventHealth 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 10-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Kansas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Blaney has started in the top five or top 10 in his last five appearances at Kansas Speedway and finished seventh three races ago at Kansas in the 2020 Hollywood Casino 400.

This year, Blaney holds the best pass differential among all drivers at +169 and should come out aggressive once again on Sunday. He'll begin 10th in the 2022 NASCAR at Kansas starting lineup.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 AdventHealth 400 starting grid. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion sits atop the 2022 NASCAR standings and is generally having a strong year, but he only has one win so far and has come up short in his last six starts in Kansas.

In his two starts this season at 1.5-mile speedways in the "Next-Gen" car, Elliott hasn't managed to record a top-five, finishing ninth in Las Vegas and sixth in Atlanta.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Kansas picks

The model is also targeting five other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Kansas odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the AdventHealth 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Kansas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 AdventHealth 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 AdventHealth 400 odds

Kyle Larson 9-2
Chase Elliott 7-1
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Alex Bowman 16-1
Tyler Reddick 16-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Chase Briscoe 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Austin Cindric 40-1
Brad Keselowski 60-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 60-1
Daniel Suarez 75-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Aric Almirola 125-1
Bubba Wallace 125-1
Chris Buescher 125-1
Justin Haley 150-1
Noah Gragson 200-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1