AFL Grand Final expert tips: Only TWO of 25 pundits pick Swans as Danger primed for hot start

Swans gamble with selection shock | 02:45
Ben Waterworth from Fox Sports@bjwaterworth

The best and most in-form teams in the AFL will collide on Saturday as Geelong takes on Sydney at the MCG.

And even though the red-hot Swans enter the match with a nine-match winning streak, the Cats have been emphatically backed to win their 10th AFL premiership.

See all 24 experts’ premier, Norm Smith Medal and first goalkicker tips — and the full final verdict.

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Grand Final
*Odds are current as of 2nd October 2022, 11:42pm AEST
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DERMOTT BRERETON

Premiers: Geelong by 9 points — “They were the best team of the season by winning two matches more than any other team. And their form has not dipped.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

JONATHAN BROWN

Premiers: Geelong by 28 points

NATHAN BUCKLEY

Premiers: Geelong by 13 points – “If they played 10 times, Geelong win six of them and Sydney win four.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

BEN COTTON

Premiers: Geelong by 12 points — “They’ve been the best team all year and there’s a sense of destiny that Chris Scott will lead them to another flag.”

Norm Smith Medal: Mitch Duncan (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tom Papley (Sydney)

NICK DAL SANTO

Premiers: Geelong by 10 points

Norm Smith Medal: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong)

BEN DIXON

Premiers: Sydney Swans by 14 points — “Geelong is hard to fault and deservedly favourites, but the Swans in my opinion are the best team in the league at taking away your strengths as a team. If they can take away Geelong’s weapon, they win — and I think they can!”

Norm Smith Medal: Isaac Heeney (Sydney)

First goalkicker: Lance Franklin (Sydney)

JASON DUNSTALL

Premiers: Geelong by 12 points — “They’ve been the best team all year ... they can’t let this opportunity slip.”

Norm Smith Medal: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)


CATH DURKIN

Premiers: Geelong by 15 points — “Hard to go past them. Had both tight and thumping wins on the lea- in which should set them up nicely. The management of bodies throughout the season also looks to have them in the box seat.”

Norm Smith Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

CATHERINE HEALEY

Premiers: Geelong, 12 points — “Like they did against the Lions, it will be the Cats’ small forwards who step up with Sydney‘s McCartin brothers doing the job on Cameron and Hawkins.”

Norm Smith Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tom Papley (Sydney)

MARK HOWARD

Premiers: Geelong by 24 points

Norm Smith Medal: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong)

ANTHONY HUDSON

Premiers: Geelong by 5 points — “Toss of the coin as the Swans can worry them, but if they can withstand the pressure the Cats should win. I can’t really tip against them.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Hayden McLean (Sydney)

JORDAN LEWIS

Premiers: Geelong by 11 points.

Norm Smith Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong)

BRAD JOHNSON

Premiers: Geelong by 20 points — “I reckon Patrick Dangerfield will set the tone and have one of the best first quarters in Grand Final history.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

DREW JONES

Premiers: Geelong by 11 points — “The best side all year will produce on the game’s biggest stage.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Brad Close (Geelong)

DAVID KING

Premiers: Geelong by 25 points.

Norm Smith Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

MAX LAUGHTON

Premiers: Geelong by 12 points — “Even if the Swans bring pressure, the Cats are too good not to dominate the match for a little while, at least. That should be enough.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Isaac Heeney (Sydney)

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KATH LOUGHNAN

Premiers: Sydney by 15 points – “The Swans’ elite pressure over four quarters, coupled with their dynamic forward line and underrated backline line, will get the job done.”

Norm Smith Medal: Luke Parker (Sydney)

First goal: Tom Papley (Sydney)

ALASTAIR LYNCH

Premiers: Geelong by 23 points — “I just feel Geelong have larger depth of mature talent who may handle the pressure of the occasion better. Plus Geelong’s ability to generate a spare down back is something many clubs haven’t been able to negate.”

Norm Smith Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

LEIGH MONTAGNA

Premiers: Geelong by 11 points — “They have too much firepower.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Lance Franklin (Sydney)

CAMERON MOONEY

Premiers: Geelong by 4 points — “To be brutally honest, I wouldn‘t be surprised if Sydney won because I think Sydney in the last six weeks have been just about the best pressure team — and in my opinion come Grand Final day, the team that can apply the most pressure for longer win the game. But Geelong has the best side and if they play at their best, they win.”

Norm Smith Medal: Tom Atkins (Geelong) — “He’s built for finals footy.”

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

MATTHEW PAVLICH

Premiers: Geelong by 8 points

Norm Smith Medal: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Brad Close (Geelong)

JON RALPH

Premiers: Geelong by 9 points — “Cameron and Stengle the game-breakers despite Sydney’s pressure turning this into an old-fashioned scrap.”

Norm Smith Medal: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

NICK RIEWOLDT

Premiers: Geelong by 3 points

Norm Smith Medal: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong)

BEN WATERWORTH

Premiers: Geelong by 12 points — “There’s something different about this Geelong outfit. A professionalism we haven’t seen from a team since probably the Hawks of 2015. They’ll be able to adapt to the conditions and tempo of the game with aplomb and be too classy when it matters most.”

Norm Smith Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

DAVID ZITA

Premiers: Geelong by 15 points — “No weaknesses, firing on all cylinders, theirs to lose. Only a Buddy masterclass can stop them at this point.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

FINAL VERDICT

Premiers

23 — Geelong Cats

2 — Sydney Swans

Norm Smith Medal

8 — Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)

5 — Cameron Guthrie (Geelong)

4 — Tom Stewart (Geelong)

2 — Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

1 — Tom Atkins (Geelong), Tyson Stengle (Geelong), Isaac Heeney (Sydney), Mitch Duncan (Geelong), Luke Parker (Sydney)

First goalkicker

6 — Tyson Stengle (Geelong)

3 — Tom Papley (Sydney)

2 — Lance Franklin (Sydney), Brad Close (Geelong), Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

1 — Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong), Isaac Heeney (Sydney), Hayden McLean (Sydney)